Tag Archives: epistemic arrogance. cognitive bias

THE BLACK SWAN

Image

THE BLACK SWAN $200 SHIPPING AND HANDLING NOT INCLUDED. http://www.etsy.com/shop/WisdomBeacons

 

http://lynnmarie1.tumblr.com/

I painted this piece with some Maori tribal designs and a sunset, it is very meaningful to me for many reasons not the least of which is the correlation with the in breaths and out breaths of Brahma, and his vamana being a swan.  I identify with the black swan.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, one of my favorite authors wrote a book called the black swan about unpredictable events being the major mover of the stock market.  The swan represents to me those unpredictable events.  People are epistemicly arrogant they over value what they know and they undervalue what they don’t know and they bias mine to prove themselves correct and ignore evidence that they are wrong.

There is also a cognitive bias associated with it.  If one thinks that all swans are white then anything that doesn’t directly confront that incorrect belief supports it.  Which means if you see a black crow, or a pink flamingo it confirms your incorrect belief that all swans are white.  This kind of thinking prevents people from detecting their own horse shit and it makes an environment rich for outliers, people and events you never see coming….

….LIKE MYSELF!!!

Just because it has never happened before that you know of, doesn’t mean that something is preventing it from happening.  Life doesn’t have any narrative that it has to fulfill.

Nihilo necesare sequitur, nothing necessarily follows.

Advertisements